BTC Historical Heatmap · OpenClaw Research

SmartMoneyKumo

About this heatmap

Timeframe

Metric Win Rate = target_hit / (target_hit + invalidated + expired)

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Heatmap · BTCUSDT · Year × Month

How to read this heatmap

Performance bands — what the colours mean

Poor WR <25% — most setups did not reach target

Weak WR 25–49% — fewer than half reached target

Mixed WR 50–64% — roughly half reached target

Strong WR 65–79% — most setups reached target

High WR ≥80% — nearly all setups reached target

Thin Resolved sample below the per-timeframe minimum — muted gray regardless of WR

No data No resolved setups in this month

Win Rate = win_count ÷ resolved_count · n = resolved_count · Unresolved setups are excluded from the denominator entirely. · Thin sample (n < min) renders muted gray regardless of WR. · Min sample by timeframe: 1H = 10 · 4H = 5 · 1D = 3 · 1W = 2. · Colour shows the historical performance band, not market direction.

Outcomes — what each result means

WIN Target hit Price reached the math engine's calculated target level before hitting the stop or expiring. Counted in the win rate numerator.

INVALIDATED Stop hit Price hit the invalidation level (Wyckoff range boundary) before reaching the target. The bullish or bearish thesis was rejected. Counted in the denominator — reduces win rate.

EXPIRED Time expired The setup window closed before price reached either the target or the stop. Neither thesis was confirmed nor rejected. Counted in the denominator — reduces win rate.

UNRESOLVED Insufficient future bars The setup is too recent — not enough future bars exist in the dataset to determine the outcome. Excluded from win rate calculation entirely (neither numerator nor denominator).